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Post by Russell Swan on Feb 28, 2012 1:08:55 GMT -5
For some reason, I have REALLY STRONG jury perception right now although it's a team effort between me, Ralph, and Silas making moves and securing allies and votes more than me doing everything alone. However, the strong perception means I'm likely going to have to win 2 challenges and play the idol to make it to the end. The upcoming KOI may or may not help.
Ralph really wanted the idol there, but I didn't want to risk giving it to him. He has to realize that he's asked me to play it on him three straight votes and then asked me directly to transfer it to him before that vote, and I've refused. Because of that, he may no longer trust me as much.
I didn't play the idol because I didn't know if the target was going to be me or Ralph and thought we at least had enough votes for a 4-4 tie if Ami swapped. I took a risk, it paid off, and now I have it to play at final 6 or final 5.
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Post by Russell Swan on Feb 28, 2012 19:34:29 GMT -5
Thinking about end-game and finals, John and Yul need to be eliminated because they'd have the underdog angle since most of their alliance was wiped out. I want to sit beside Ami and Ralph because Ami turned against a lot of people, so they'll hopefully be bitter towards her and not "understand" or "respect" her moves while the fact that Ralph has been drunk and self-voting is something that I'll try to capitalize on against him. Our alliance's two main strategists, Chicken and Erik, are currently on the jury.
Ideally, Silas needs to be taken out because I think he's going to have a lot of respect from the jurors since he's made some good moves and that no one really disrespects him, but I think it would look bad to betray him, so I'd potentially let him be the target if we lose KOI and I have to play my idol to stay safe. I don't trust anyone to bring me to the final three at this point, so as I already stated, I basically need to win F6 or F5 immunity, play the idol the other vote, and then win f4 immunity to make final three.
If I don't win the challenges, I'll scramble and try to make moves to avoid having to use the idol, but I think Gary's post and all the comments about me winning if I make finals make that almost impossible to achieve.
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Post by Russell Swan on Mar 1, 2012 3:11:36 GMT -5
So this makes two straight challenges where I thought I had them won but came up just a little short for various reasons.
The Black Swan is starting to disappoint. :-\ I need to rebound at final five and final four.
I'll probably play the idol. It's possible that this vote could shift in a way where I'd be safe without it since Ralph and Silas know that I have it, but that's a big risk to take here. This is probably going to be my opportunity to get Silas out, and then I'll bank on Ami and Ralph sticking with me at final 5 even though I''m highly reluctant to think they will.
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Post by Russell Swan on Mar 1, 2012 22:10:55 GMT -5
Apparently Ami is voting for me, and I was 'told' that Ralph is joining her by John and Yul. John and Yul say they'll vote with Silas and I for Ralph. I don't really believe that. I think they're trying to split this vote around, but their ultimate goal has to be to take me out this round or at least get me to flush the idol.
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Post by Russell Swan on Mar 2, 2012 1:42:41 GMT -5
I haven't talked to Ami or Ralph. Ami is supposedly voting for me, and there are rumors that Ralph might, but I think he'll vote Silas.
John/Yul say Ralph. Can I trust them? No.
Silas says Ralph. Can I trust him? I think so.
I'm voting Silas out of 'loyalty' to Ralph since I've known him longer, and I think Silas understands. Well, that's what I'm saying, but I secretly hope that Silas goes home for the fact that he's a bigger strategic threat and possible challenge threat to keep me from winning more immunity competitions. I think Silas could easily end up staying and Ralph could go. What is frustrating is that I'll probably end up 5th here if I don't win next challenge since I no longer will have an idol. It's impossible for me to tell how votes are being placed, but I think it's most intelligent for Ami/John/Yul to vote for me regardless just so that I can't coast through without playing it since Ralph or Silas will still end up going.
Ugh, I hate how I'll probably look stupid for playing this, but I can't risk not doing it.
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Post by Rob Mariano on Mar 2, 2012 18:24:07 GMT -5
What do you think about the fact you didn't have to use the idol? I know you must be massively disappointed... And of Ralph's reaction?
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